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Showing posts from January, 2020

Elo Rating for BJJ – A Predictive Model for Match Outcomes

In previous articles, I have looked at the new-ish IBJJF seeding system as a way to predict match outcomes at the IBJJF No Gi Pans . I used IBJJF medal results to rank fighters after the 2019 World Championships . I also created a machine learning model to help predict who will win a match up at the ADCC tournament . Today, we (yes a collab project between myself and Dan Tsinis ) are introducing the Elo Rating System for Brazilian Jiu Jitsu as a way to rank fighters and predict the probability of fighters winning in a potential match up. Below are the top 50 pound for pound competitors and the top 10-20 by each weight class. The ratings only include the last three years (2017-2019) and each year has a seasonal weight. This is not reflective of the best competitors of all time, but the most accurate of who competed the most in the last year. These are the current 2019 year-end standings. Predictions for First Round Matches at IBJJF Europeans 2020 With our Elo rating sys