BJJ Data by Riggs

Here's a quick post-tournament update on our Elo Rating for BJJ . This post is an analysis of the statistical model, not the matches or fighters. Highlights:  We accurately predicted a few noteworthy first round matches with our Elo Rating system. Thalison Soares was slightly favored to win over Bruno Malfacine, with a win probability of 54.48%, and beat the long-time reigning Rooster weight world champ. Gabriel Sousa went up a weight class to Feather, but was still favored to win against Gianni Grippo, with a win probability of 65.64%.  Manuel Ribamar edged out Espen Mathiesen, with a win probability of 58.80%, and won his first European title. Italo Moura beat Gabriel Figueiro, with a win probability of 54.39%. We correctly predicted 20 first round match ups out of 24 matches, or 83% first round predictions (excluding no shows). Our Elo Rating for BJJ had a predictive accuracy of 72% overall.  We calculated the predictive accuracy by totaling the number...